‘Just Keeps Rolling Along’
Don't forget to 'spring forward' this weekend. Have a good one
Photo by omid armin on Unsplash.
The week has past and where have we come to. Hmm, not exactly sure. The war in Iran and in the surrounding region, well not surprisingly, continues its destructive path. And, I thought I’d bring you up to date on Canada’s Mark Carney ‘Middle Power sojourn’ in the Indo-Pacific. He is closing in on completing his Indo-Pacific trip to India, Australia and finally Japan. But I shall wait for his return to Canada before reviewing his efforts.
Now let’s turn to the conflict in the Mideast, Trump has ramped up the rhetoric, and along with Israel, the air attacks. Trump, as noted by David Sanger in the NYT, has raised the stakes over the week:
“But Mr. Trump demanded in a social media post that the country capitulate, after which he said would come “the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s),” and promised that the United States and its allies “will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction.””
From the President and US officials, especially Secretary of Defense - yes that’s right still Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth continues to express the strongest language and goals:
“The president’s bellicose statement reflects how he has melded his longtime vision of a powerful America that makes maximum use of its military might with his new confidence in his ability to decapitate hostile governments, and personally install a new generation of leaders who he believes will bend to American will.”
“It was also the latest in a series of ever-shifting goals Mr. Trump has laid out for the war in Iran, leaving his aides, and congressional allies, struggling to keep up and at times contradicting the president. In fact, just hours after Mr. Trump made his demand, his press secretary tried to couch his demand, at least in part, suggesting that the surrender would “essentially” occur when Mr. Trump concluded his war objectives have been met.”
In fact the bellicose language has been most notable from Hegseth himself, at several press conferences he has held over the past days. This has been described by FT analysts, James Politi, Washington Bureau Chief and Steff Chávez, an FT, US defence correspondent:
““They’re toast and they know it,” the US defence secretary said, adding: “And we have only just begun to hunt.””
“Later, he said: “We are punching them while they’re down, which is exactly how it should be.””
“In Donald Trump’s war against Iran, Hegseth’s rhetoric casting America as a righteous, ruthless predator is at the centre of a hyper-aggressive messaging strategy from the White House that has included a barrage of social media clips of the military operations to showcase American lethality and prowess.” …
“Hegseth’s “bombastic language seems detached from the reality of wartime decision-making”, said Mara Karlin, a former Pentagon strategy and policy official.”
“But critics say the crude spin and visual messaging coming from the very top of the administration — and Hegseth in particular — has been brutal to observe coming from the US government.”
So while the language is ‘over the top’, crude and bellicose, at the current moment, the goals and end are ever changing, I suppose not particularly surprising with Trump at the helm. Again, as David Sanger writes:
“Throughout the week, those objectives have changed. In the opening hours of the U.S. attack on Saturday, Mr. Trump declared that the goal of the attack was to destroy the existing order so that Iran’s people could emerge from their homes, rise up and overthrow their government.”
“But in the following days, both Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pivoted away from the emphasis on regime change, saying that the United States was simply focused on assuring that Iran’s nuclear program was permanently destroyed, and that it no longer had the missile capability to attack Israel, its Arab neighbors, or perhaps some day the United States.” …
“But Mr. Trump keeps returning to exactly that goal. He has repeatedly cited the model of the American action in Venezuela, where U.S. forces removed Nicolás Maduro earlier this year and sanctioned the ascension of his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, saying she could run the country as long as she complied with American demands, particularly access to oil.”
““It’s going to work very easily. It’s going to work like in Venezuela,” he told CNN in a brief telephone conversation Friday.” …
““I don’t mind religious leaders,” he said. “I deal with a lot of religious leaders.” As long as they were “fair” to Israel and to the United States, he said, he was willing to keep a clerical government.”
Exactly how Trump wants to conclude this imbroglio is evidently very unclear. And, even while Trump shifts from one outcome to another, it appears that there is an effort by some of the Gulf allies to try and end the conflict by securing a ceasefire with whomever is leading in Iran. Whether this is at the moment likely seems questionable, especially as the US and Israeli objectives do not seem at all identical. As pointed out by my colleague Thomas Wright in The Atlantic:
“Instead, as Trump said on Tuesday, installing a new leader “from within” the regime “might be more appropriate.” The administration’s intervention in Venezuela earlier this year produced a similar outcome:”
“Israel is seeking a far more sweeping transformation. The country’s aim is not merely to remove Iran’s supreme leader but to dismantle the regime entirely.”
As David Sanger concludes:
“While Mr. Trump on Friday asserted that he would settle for nothing less than surrender, other leaders touted efforts to mediate a cease-fire. President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran said Friday that many countries had offered to host peace talks, though he did not name them. Oman sought a diplomatic off ramp before the war, and Egypt and Turkey might also play a role, according to Mideast diplomats.”
So, where this conflict goes, and how it draws to a close is, at the moment, all up in the air - sorry, I couldn’t resist. But who is surprised by this with Donald Trump as President. Still, it is unnerving with all this destruction from the sky. But we will keep following it, for sure.