Global Election Time - Democracy's Complexity
Just in time to enjoy a holiday read if you are in the US and hopefully end of weekend enjoyment for all.
It is global election time. The complexity and potential impact of various upcoming elections on the politics and democratic sustainability of several countries are on full display.
First there is the conclusion of the recent presidential and legislative elections in the Republic of China - Taiwan. The result, the election of the DPP candidate Lai Ching-te was described in China-US Focus:
This week, across the strait from China's eastern coast, William Lai Ching-te was officially sworn in as Taiwan's new president, after winning the election in January. The inauguration ceremony, marked by a 21-gun salute and attended by dignitaries from around the world, set the stage for Lai's assertive yet conciliatory address. Lai called on Beijing to abandon its aggressive stance and engage in dialogue, emphasizing the self-governed island's commitment to its democratic principles and the status quo.
The Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP is seen as favoring Taiwan’s independence.
Nevertheless observers have generally underscored Lai’s careful balancing of sovereignty against the equally careful expression of cooperative relations with China. Again, as expressed in the China-US Focus:
Lai's presidency promises a continuation of Tsai Ing-wen's cautious approach, balancing a firm defense posture with a call for dialogue. His administration is expected to bolster Taiwan's defenses through advanced military imports and regional partnerships, particularly with the U.S. and Japan, balancing the delicate line deterrence and diplomacy in the cross-strait dynamic.
Though observers were quick to notice the initial moderate criticism of Beijing, nevertheless following Lai’s inauguration, Beijing turned to military action to express Beijing’s distaste for Lai and what he expressed:
Meanwhile, Beijing conducted drills around the island this week in what it described as "punishment" for "separatist acts." The Chinese People's Liberation Army on Friday launched mock missile attacks and other operations, intensifying its intimidation campaign against the newly inaugurated president. Experts say Beijing's actions were "preordained" and have the potential to escalate.
Notwithstanding Beijing’s expressed distaste and military exercises following Lai’s election and now inauguration, China seemed to take some satisfaction from the Legislative election, the Yuan, the DPP failed to win a majority and, as a result the Taiwan government was weakened. Indeed a degree of turmoil has followed in the Yuan as a result of the DPP minority position. As described in NikkeiAsia:
Taiwan's legislature adjourned Tuesday without approving sweeping bills to curtail the power of new President Lai Ching-te, after thousands of protesters gathered outside parliament to oppose the legislation.
Under the proposals from the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP), which together command a majority in the Legislative Yuan, government officials could be jailed up to a year for remarks made during parliamentary hearings that legislators deem to conceal facts or to be false.
Democracy can be messy. Actions in Taiwan seem to underscore the complex expression of democratic politics in this island(s) governance. But the politics of Taiwan is meaningful and consequential. As described by Ryan Hass, currently serving as director of the Brookings Institution's John L. Thornton China Center and the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies (Brookings, May 14th):
Lai famously referred to himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence.” And since Beijing has threatened to go to war to prevent Taiwan independence, so the thinking goes, Lai’s inauguration could spell impending trouble. … Such analysis is easy to write and almost certainly wrong. Lai is not a wild-eyed zealot with a one-track-minded focus on Taiwan independence. He is a professional politician who has organized his career around becoming Taiwan’s president.
Democracy can raise very difficult internal and external relations.
Then there is South Africa. South Africa is in the midst of its national elections. For the first time since apartheid’s end, and the rise to power and governance of the African National Congress, or ANC there is some prospect that the ANC will fail to win a majority in this year’s elections. And this prospect is made a more realistic prospect as a result of ANCs former leader and South Africa’s former ANC President, Jacob Zuma. As described by Sisonke Msimang in the FP:
Though Zuma remains a member of the ruling party that he once led, he has formed a new political party called uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP)—named after the ANC’s armed wing during the anti-apartheid struggle. Despite a Constitutional Court order earlier this week banning him from running, Zuma has been actively campaigning for months as the new party’s leader. Polls suggest that MKP could win up to 15 percent of the national vote. … If the ANC doesn’t secure the majority that it needs to govern alone, Zuma could play a vital role in determining the future of the country, proving—as he has many times before—that he is not to be underestimated. Love him or hate him, Zuma is the most consequential South African politician of his generation.
The problems of the ANC do relate to Zuma and to the corruption he brought to the presidency but it is more broadly a result in the overlong dominance of the Party over South Africa’s politics since apartheid’s demise:
With the coming election, South Africa is preparing to enter a new phase of its democracy. The ANC is in decline, which means that even if it holds on to its majority, it will emerge from the political contest battered and bruised. Over the past decade, the party has hemorrhaged support. Voters who once respected the party leaders now indicate that they no longer trust the ANC, or democracy in general. … As Itumeleng Mahabane, a writer and communications advisor, put it, the ANC has become an “ideologically agnostic kleptocracy.”
Corruption undermines democracy and we are witnessing its consequences in this South African election cycle.
Maintaining and nurturing democracy is critical. And that seems dramatically necessary for the United States. Already for the immediate moment but soon possibly of greater consequence there is the ongoing US presidential election cycle and the real prospect of a dramatic election outcome now less than six months away. Turbulence is what this election reveals. The quixotic nature of the Trump candidacy swinging from classic Republican views to dramatically radical ones reflecting ‘far right’ dogma especially around immigration but also trade and tariffs shakes confidence in the democratic politics of the still great power, the United States. This fear for American democracy is expressed in the New York Times book review of Issac Arnsdorf’s, “Finish What We Started: The MAGA Movement’s Ground War to End Democracy” by Jennifer Szalai. In the review she points a anti-democratic finger at Steve Bannon the long time supporter of Donald Trump:
Arnsdorf’s book arrives at a moment when Democrats are warning that Trump and the MAGA movement are seeking to end democracy as we know it — and Trump, in his usual I’m-rubber-you’re-glue way, has started to fling the accusation right back. … Bannon, by constantly telling his listeners that they’re the culmination of democracy instead of its death knell, is feeding them a useful and invigorating delusion.
No one suggests that democratic politics is simple or without threat to collective democratic expression and action. But that is why parties, leaders and followers need to remain engaged in the present and work for democratic electoral and political outcomes.